Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 4:04PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Five Bear Market Maxims

Jul 02, 2008 07:00am EDT by Andy Kessler in Investing, Recession
Sure it's been fun to have the stock market go up these last few years, but you shouldn't necessarily despair now. Why? Because there's money to be made in a bear market. Trust me, I've been through at least 5 tech-market blowouts since 1982, the last true kick-your-ass bear market. And certain lessons do apply. Here's a hint: don't listen to Abe Lincoln. Do listen to Mae West.» More
Every market has its proxy. During 1997 and 1998, I watched the Asian markets overnight to gauge how Wall Street was going to fare. Later, Amazon.com was my guidepost. These days, amid the mortgage fallout, I use a different proxy: the ABX derivatives index. While it may overstate the subprime bond losses, I stand by it as an overall market indicator. Even with Lehman's news Monday, ABX suggests more trouble ahead. After that passes, though, I think we could see a big rally in tech, which is doing fine, but waiting for investors to finally put the fear of a financial meltdown behind them.» More
Earlier, Andy Kessler laid down his rationale for why stock picking trumps indexing. Here, Kessler -- former hedge manager, All-Star tech analyst, author and Tech Ticker contributor -- explains why he believes small-cap tech stocks are poised for big upside.

His theory is that times aren't as bad in Silicon Valley as the popular press would have you believe and that money will soon start to flow out of over-loved areas like commodities and into the most unloved tech names.

Kessler describes small-cap stocks in the wireless infrastructure, network equipment and security business, whose shares have plummeted in the past few months but still offer strong revenue and earnings growth.» More

Everyone on Wall Street is braced for the next shoe to drop and Silicon Valley is starting to feel the pinch, according to popular consensus.

But Andy Kessler, former hedge manager, All-Star tech analyst, author and Tech Ticker contributor, often bucks consensus and does so again here.

Rather than shrinking, he says Silcon Valley is on an upswing with jobs plentiful and smaller companies enjoying the tickle-down effect of growth at big names like Google, as well as big trends like cloud computing.

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To trade, or not to trade? That is the question.

Henry Blodget often argues it's a mistake for individual investors to try and trade stocks; that the vast majority of individuals are better off owning index funds.

But Andy Kessler, former hedge manager, All-Star tech analyst, author and Tech Ticker contributor, says otherwise. Kessler believes that John Bogle has sold the American public if not a bill of goods, than an excuse to accept mediocre returns.

Kessler's point is that with time and effort, the average investor can do a lot better by picking a few winners vs. buying an index fund and being saddled with a lot of losers.

Of course, Henry isn't taking Kessler's anti-Bogle heresy lying down.

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In the final segment of my one-on-one with Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, we discuss the potentially touchy subject of Forbes senior editor Daniel Lyons, better known as Fake Steve Jobs. Turns out Woz has met Fake Steve, and is even a fan. Things take a turn for the worse, though, when Woz and I end up on opposite sides of the Mac-PC line in the sand. Tune in as we square off in a Segway joust -- maybe not the best idea I ever had, considering Woz sponsors an annual Segway polo tournament.

Here are the earlier excerpts from my Woz interview. Enjoy!

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Steve Wozniak is no day trader. But he is intrigued by certain opportunities in tech-related industries now. And how does he keep in touch with the world? Hear his thoughts on news and community in a Web 2.0 world.

For the earlier excerpts of my Wozniak interview, click here, here, here, and here. Plus, stay tuned to Tech Ticker for more from the Woz!

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As you'd expect, Steve Wozniak is a real gadget guru. In this segment of my one-on-one with the Apple co-founder, he talks among other things about being an early adopter of calculator watches, using his Garmin Nuvi GPS on walks, and the mobile phone he really prefers. He also reflects on his love of music, which led him to sponsor the legendary US Festivals in the early 1980s.

To see earlier excerpts from my Wozniak interview, click here, here, and here. Plus, stay tuned to Tech Ticker for more from the Woz!

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For young engineers today, it's all about designing the next, great widget -- or at least souping up your iPhone. In my one-on-one with Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, we talk about whether young innovators today possess the same talent and opportunity compared with the Silicon Valley leaders of the 1970s.

To see earlier excerpts from my Wozniak interview, click here or here. Plus, stay tuned to Tech Ticker for more from the Woz!» More

The Woz describes the days of building the Apple 1 and 2 Computers in his free time. He thought he had it made with his $24,000 a year salary at HP. Then came the first order!

Stay tuned to Tech Ticker for more from this interview -- and here's what we've released so far: Get Ready for Woz!

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